WILLEMSTAD – The Central Bank of Curaçao and Sint Maarten (CBCS) has revised its economic growth projections upward once again and reports that both countries are experiencing a net inflow of capital. According to the bank, the updated outlook reflects continued economic resilience despite rising geopolitical uncertainties in the region.
CBCS President Richard Doornbosch made the remarks in response to an interview published in the Dutch financial newspaper Het Financieele Dagblad, in which economist Jakob de Haan warned of potential risks to the Caribbean guilder stemming from escalating tensions between the United States and Venezuela. De Haan recently joined the CBCS Monetary Policy Committee.
“Professor De Haan rightly points out that we must also take less favorable scenarios into account,” Doornbosch said. “That is precisely why we have conducted a scenario analysis, which we will present on Tuesday. This analysis shows that our reserve position remains extremely comfortable and that we have the necessary instruments to effectively manage a potential increase in regional tensions.”
De Haan, who advises the central bank in Willemstad, described developments in Venezuela as the most significant external risk factor. He noted that domestic investors are required to keep at least 60 percent of their capital within Curaçao and Sint Maarten. “If large amounts of money were to flow out of the countries, this would put pressure on the exchange rate. That is something we want to avoid,” he said. At the same time, he cautioned that certain legal avenues exist that could allow capital to leave, and he expressed concern that these might be used under conditions of heightened uncertainty.
The proximity of Venezuela remains a key concern in the analysis. “If an armed conflict were to occur, Curaçao would certainly feel the impact,” De Haan said. “Residents might start thinking about placing their capital elsewhere.” He questioned whether capital flight could be fully prevented, warning that large-scale outflows could put the currency under strain. However, he emphasized that the CBCS is actively monitoring the situation and that current foreign exchange reserves remain strong.
The CBCS is expected to formally present its revised, more optimistic economic growth forecasts for both Curaçao and Sint Maarten on Tuesday.