Curaçao and Sint Maarten can look back on 2025 as a year of solid economic performance. Growth returned with strength, inflation eased, public finances stabilized, and debt ratios moved in the right direction. According to the Central Bank, tourism once again proved to be the backbone of the monetary union, carrying both economies through a period marked by global uncertainty, geopolitical tension, and tighter financial conditions.
This is good news — but it is not a reason for complacency.
Curaçao’s 3.5 percent growth and Sint Maarten’s 3.1 percent expansion are respectable by any regional standard. Hotel occupancy, cruise arrivals, and stay-over tourism exceeded expectations. Inflation cooled to manageable levels, fiscal balances remained in surplus, and debt ratios declined, even as borrowing from the Netherlands continued. In short: macroeconomic stability has improved.
Yet the composition of this growth tells a more cautionary story.
Tourism did most of the heavy lifting. Domestic demand, especially public investment in Curaçao, underperformed relative to budgeted plans. This is a recurring problem: projects are approved, funds are allocated, but execution lags. Growth driven mainly by external demand leaves the economy exposed — particularly when that demand depends on perceptions of safety, global mobility, and disposable income abroad.
The Central Bank’s outlook makes this clear. Growth is expected to slow toward 2 percent by the end of the decade as tourism matures and reconstruction effects fade. That trajectory is not a crisis scenario, but it does mean that today’s relatively favorable conditions are temporary. The question is whether governments will use this window wisely.
The risk environment remains unforgiving. Tensions between the United States and Venezuela are no longer abstract geopolitical concerns; they directly affect shipping routes, insurance costs, aviation safety, migration pressures, and the Caribbean’s image as a safe destination. Curaçao, by geography alone, sits on the frontline. Add to that lingering global conflicts, fragile energy markets, trade protectionism, and uncertainty around U.S. monetary policy, and it becomes clear how quickly external shocks could derail current gains.
Domestic vulnerabilities compound the picture. Climate risks, delayed infrastructure execution, unresolved AML/CFT issues, and rising long-term pressures from healthcare and social insurance systems continue to weigh on resilience. Fiscal surpluses today do not automatically translate into sustainability tomorrow if structural reforms remain slow.
This is the paradox of 2025: the numbers look reassuring, but the margin for error is shrinking.
The policy task ahead is therefore not to chase higher short-term growth at all costs, but to convert cyclical strength into structural durability. That means executing public investment on time, diversifying the economic base beyond tourism, strengthening institutions, addressing compliance gaps, and preparing for shocks rather than reacting to them.
Growth has returned. Stability has improved. Confidence has been restored — for now.
Whether Curaçao and Sint Maarten look back on 2025 as a turning point or merely a temporary upswing will depend on what leaders choose to do next, while the economy still gives them room to maneuver.