WILLEMSTAD – The Dutch government has begun revising its crisis scenarios for the Caribbean part of the Kingdom amid fears that rising tensions between the United States and Venezuela could disrupt vital supply chains to Aruba, Curaçao and Bonaire.
According to detailed parliamentary documents, the Ministry of the Interior has warned that a maritime incident or sudden border closure in Venezuela could impact the availability of food, fuel, and medical supplies. Because the ABC islands rely almost entirely on imported goods, even moderate disruptions could trigger significant shortages.
The new scenario analyses consider several risks—ranging from delays in commercial shipping corridors to the potential for Venezuelan military posturing that could temporarily close parts of the Caribbean Sea. One scenario contemplates the possibility of mass migration from Venezuela should political unrest intensify, placing additional strain on already limited food reserves.
Parliamentarians expressed concern that the islands have only modest strategic stocks of essential goods. Curaçao depends on weekly shipments for most staple products, and local storage capacity is limited. A prolonged crisis could therefore require swift intervention from the Netherlands in the form of naval escort operations, emergency airlifts or temporary subsidies to stabilize supply flows.
Curaçao, Aruba and Bonaire have been asked to update their own emergency plans. This includes evaluating supermarket inventories, revising rationing protocols, strengthening coordination with port authorities, and improving communication with the public to prevent panic buying.
Food security has not traditionally been a central focus of Dutch-Caribbean policy, but the document notes that “geopolitical realities compel a reassessment.” The situation underscores the islands’ vulnerability to external shocks—an issue long raised by local experts but rarely prioritized in The Hague.
The Dutch Cabinet insists it is working closely with island governments, but several MPs emphasized that the local population needs clearer, more visible reassurance. As one legislator put it: “People cannot wait for a crisis to know whether they will still have food on the shelves.”