WILLEMSTAD – Curaçao is entering the early phase of a rapid demographic transition that will profoundly shape its economy in the years ahead. This is the conclusion of a new publication titled Curacao in the Japanese Mirror, which compares the island’s current trajectory with that of Japan — the first country to experience extreme population aging and decades of economic stagnation.
According to the authors, Curaçao still has time to intervene strategically, but the window for effective action is closing quickly.
The report highlights that Curaçao’s working-age population is shrinking while increasing numbers of highly educated professionals continue to leave the island. Nurses, teachers, ICT specialists and technical experts are among the groups emigrating most frequently, weakening the island’s productive capacity and slowing economic growth.
At the same time, public finances are coming under pressure as the number of elderly residents rises and the pool of working citizens declines. This combination, the authors note, is a classic early warning sign of long-term stagnation — a pattern Japan confronted decades earlier.
Growing reliance on foreign capital
Another major concern outlined in the report is the decline in domestic savings. Curaçaoan banks hold significant liquidity, yet due to cautious lending policies, investment is increasingly dependent on foreign capital, particularly in tourism and real estate.
Most new investment projects fall within these low-productivity sectors, while industries that could boost long-term competitiveness — such as maritime services, circular industry, technical innovation and light manufacturing — struggle to attract financing.
Financial sector vulnerabilities
The report further concludes that constraints within the financial sector worsen Curaçao’s economic fragility. High borrowing costs, limited access to capital for small businesses, and slow adoption of digital identification and fintech tools all contribute to lower productivity.
If these trends continue, the island risks becoming a low-growth, service-dependent economy marked by heavy import reliance and limited export strength.
A call for strategic redirection
To counter this trajectory, the authors urge Curaçao to shift its investment priorities. The island should expand modernization efforts in the maritime sector, develop circular industries focused on waste processing and material reuse, invest in water and renewable-energy technologies, strengthen its digital services and data infrastructure, bolster agro-technology and regional food systems, and pursue specialized medical sectors where Curaçao has competitive advantages.
The report’s central message is clear: future policy must focus on productivity, export capacity and economic resilience. While Japan delayed structural reforms until it was too late, the authors argue that Curaçao still has a chance to steer its economy toward sustainable, high-value growth — but the opportunity will not last indefinitely.