WILLEMSTAD – The number of murders on Curaçao has declined sharply in recent years, marking a significant improvement in public safety on the island. Whereas the homicide rate before the COVID-19 pandemic exceeded 20 per 100,000 inhabitants, it has now fallen to approximately 7 to 8 per 100,000. This assessment was highlighted by Professor Evan Ellis, Research Professor at the U.S. Army War College Strategic Studies Institute.
According to Ellis, the reduction in deadly violence reflects a clear improvement in street-level security. However, he cautions that this does not mean the underlying criminal threat has disappeared. Instead, the nature of crime in the region is changing.
Ellis points out that visible, traditional street violence is increasingly giving way to organized and often transnational criminal activity. While Curaçao now records significantly fewer homicides than some of the most heavily affected countries in the region, the island remains above the levels seen in smaller and more stable jurisdictions.
Recent figures show Curaçao’s homicide rate at roughly 7 to 8 per 100,000 inhabitants, well below countries such as Jamaica and Trinidad and Tobago, where rates hover between 40 and 50 per 100,000. At the same time, Curaçao still scores higher than islands like Aruba and the Cayman Islands, where homicide rates generally range between 2 and 6 per 100,000. This places Curaçao in the middle tier within the Caribbean, after years of belonging to the region’s highest risk category.
Local security experts note that the continued presence of the Venezuelan criminal gang Los Lobos remains a concern, with police monitoring the group closely. At the same time, the threat posed by the local criminal organization No Limit Soldiers has diminished since the arrest of its leader, Tyson Quant, in Dubai. That arrest is widely seen as a key factor behind the decline in serious violent incidents on the island.
Ellis stresses that targeted law enforcement and international arrests have contributed significantly to the reduction in murders, but warns that the security challenge has become more complex rather than simpler. The focus is increasingly shifting toward drug trafficking, financial crime, human trafficking, and Curaçao’s role within international criminal networks.
The island’s geographic location—close to the Venezuelan coast and along major smuggling routes—continues to play a decisive role. At the same time, broader geopolitical developments are influencing regional security. The United States has expanded its military presence in the Caribbean as part of Operation Southern Spear, primarily in response to tensions surrounding Venezuela and efforts to combat maritime drug trafficking.
For countries within the Kingdom of the Netherlands, including Curaçao, this evolving situation creates a more complex security environment in which defense, narcotics trafficking, and international power dynamics are increasingly intertwined. For criminal networks, such conditions can be both restrictive and opportunistic. Increased patrols, surveillance, and international cooperation raise the risks of smuggling, while political instability, migration pressures, and strain on local law enforcement can open new avenues for organized crime to adapt.
As a result, the decline in visible street violence on Curaçao calls for a broader understanding of security. According to Ellis, the core challenge is shifting toward less visible domains such as international smuggling routes, financial flows, digital communication, and corruption. Addressing these threats requires not only policing but also stronger intelligence capabilities, maritime surveillance, and intensified international information-sharing.
Ellis cautions that for policymakers on Curaçao and within the Kingdom, recent successes in reducing murders must not lead to complacency. The apparent calm on the streets may mask criminal activity that has simply moved into more discreet and sophisticated forms, increasingly shaped by regional tensions and global criminal dynamics.