LONDON – Even if the United States succeeds in forcing a political transition in Venezuela, it is unlikely that the country would withdraw from OPEC, according to an analysis published by Reuters energy columnist Ron Bousso.
Bousso argues that the Trump administration’s strategy in the Western Hemisphere—combined with its efforts to strengthen ties with OPEC powerhouses such as Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates—suggests Washington may actually prefer Venezuela to remain within the oil cartel. If a new, more U.S.-aligned government takes power in Caracas, American influence inside OPEC could even increase.
Venezuela’s role diminished but still critical
Venezuela has been a member of OPEC since 1960 and is one of the organization’s founding countries. Its influence, however, has declined sharply due to collapsing oil production, political instability, and heavy international sanctions. Still, the country possesses the largest proven oil reserves in the world.
Should sanctions be lifted, Bousso notes, American and European energy companies would likely rush back into the country, enabling a significant long-term boost in production.
A pragmatic U.S.–OPEC relationship
The analysis highlights former president Donald Trump’s pragmatic dealings with OPEC over the past years. During the COVID-19 pandemic, OPEC production cuts helped stabilize global oil prices, ultimately benefiting U.S. shale producers. More recently, Trump has pressed OPEC—particularly Saudi Arabia—to increase output in an effort to lower energy prices.
Against this backdrop, Bousso sees little reason for the U.S. to push Venezuela out of the 65-year-old organization. Maintaining Venezuela’s membership could provide Washington with strategic leverage over global oil markets, especially if a future Venezuelan government is more closely aligned with U.S. interests.
Overall, the analysis concludes that OPEC is likely to remain a key arena for Venezuelan oil diplomacy, regardless of political developments in Caracas.